April 4, 2025
We won’t spend too much time on the jobs numbers this morning because there are bigger items (ahem, tariffs and such) on the agenda to discuss. The average workweek in the States is currently 34.2 hours— still quite short of the 40 hour-week many of us knew so well. Not surprisingly, hourly earnings rose 0.3% in February, which puts them right in line with February’s PCE (i.e. inflation). Though US payrolls came in stronger than expected, the official unemployment rate ticked up a hair to 4.2%. Meanwhile U6, a broader gauge of joblessness, is clipping along at 7.9%. Private payrolls expanded by a healthy 209,000 in the month of March as government hiring made up the balance, tacking on an additional 19,000. A total of 228,000 jobs is a strong showing for an economy dealing with the level of policy uncertainty that we have experienced year to date. However, with the stroke of a Sharpie much has changed!
For today’s Partner Note, this is the equation that matters:
The financial world had been awaiting the arrival of April 2 for several weeks—and in our world of fastmoving markets and evolving datapoints that can feel like eons. However, the day finally arrived and with it came the official announcement of reciprocal tariffs. The above equation is effectively how the Trump administration calculated the “appropriate” tariffs for its many trade partners. After some haphazard revisions over the last 24 to 36 hours, the minimum threshold is basically 10% and the high watermark, as of today, is 54%. Of course, there was a dissertation on past wrongs and woeful weaknesses of previous administrations that have gotten us to this point in the runup to the proclamation, but the President ultimately determined that it was in America’s best interest to tear up the script with respect to global trade norms.
If these policies are to stay in place in their present form (and that to us is a BIG “if” at this stage of the game), then Wednesday’s meeting in the Rose Garden is the beginning of a seismic shift economically and geopolitically. It has the potential to reshape the nature and patterns of trade flows, global alliances, international finance, and the very way we operate on a day-to-day basis. It is an old approach to address relatively new grievances. So, it is also difficult to map and calibrate the degree of potential change. We do see some validity in the argument for a more defensive trade policy, but “The Donald” has a tendency to overdo things, and in our opinion, that is exactly what he has done. Unfortunately, we have seen this before on Capitol Hill: bad policy worsens the longer it lingers.
Fortunately, Trump isn’t tone deaf when it comes to the cacophony of chaotic markets, dysfunctional economics, and the outcry of corporate America. Whether on the campaign trail or tucked away in the Oval Office, Mr. Trump has shown a certain degree of nimbleness when changing his tune, while ostensibly digging in his heels. Our base case was for a 10% baseline tariff rate with situational adjustments. Of course, there is plenty of room for the President’s discretion baked into this “deal,” so there is a chance that we wind up closer to those levels in the months and years to come (but it won’t be tomorrow!). As an aside, we expect many earnings calls— yes, quarterly reporting is right around the corner again— with little to no guidance given this turn of events. What happened Wednesday has the potential to be that big of a deal!
At this point, the signal from financial markets is unambiguous—if the tariff policy sticks, then recession is likely. Remember when we asked “how” Trump would bring down oil and the 10 yr UST? Well, it has been ugly, but this is one way to do it. In a surprising announcement yesterday, OPEC+ stated it would be adding barrels in lieu of withholding them in May! Our thoughts are that there are five components to this story and you can weight them as you like—1. Saudi Arabia is tired of its fellow members producing beyond quota (remember each OPEC+ member has a production quota but retains ultimate discretion over how much is actually produced) 2. Chinese demand remains soft despite Xi’s steps to buttress the economy 3. Iranian supply will likely be further curtailed by the Trump administration 4. For better or worse, US pressure/ dealmaking capacity under Donald Trump means something different than it did in the previous administration 5. The time to compete has arrived. Oil has been CRUSHED in the past two sessions with front month WTI barely in the $60’s—we’re talking about a downdraft of ~$10/bbl! Meanwhile, with global recession odds rising some of the best havens are… you guessed it, US treasuries! It is always a bit of a headscratcher to us when the kneejerk response from the market is to reach for duration even when better risk-adjusted AND absolute compensation is at the front-end of the curve, but that is neither here nor there. The 10 yr UST is decidedly below 4% as of this writing and ~90 bps below its January high! The pain in the market is more than apparent, but we also know the source (and where to point the finger).
To us, this is a validation of our portfolio process and a defining characteristic that we hope our clients genuinely appreciate as we navigate yet another exciting year in financial markets. We have reduced strategic risk-exposures across client portfolios steadily over the past year, while taking advantage of various tactical opportunities when they have presented themselves. We knew the volatility would come even if fundamentals remained intact, and that is exactly where we are. Naturally, we will be keeping a close eye on the fundamental picture in the coming weeks and months, but we feel the same strategy will continue to serve us well. As always, we greatly appreciate your trust and confidence as we continue our journey together.
News Release: Bureau of Labor Statistics (The Employment Situation- March 2025)